A glimpse at the economic outlook for 2025

The economic outlook for 2025 suggests moderate optimism, as explained by Professor Edoardo Beretta, a Full Professor at the Faculty of Economics at Università della Svizzera italiana (USI), in an interview with "Il Quotidiano" (RSI).

While there are several factors that create uncertainty regarding the economic outlook for the coming year—such as international conflicts, potential tariffs from the Trump administration, and the weakness of the eurozone—there are encouraging signs at the federal level. However, in Ticino, these factors must be considered in light of last year's price increases, lower wages compared to those north of the Alps, and rising health insurance costs. "Swiss households, and especially those in Ticino, which are particularly affected by the increase in health insurance premiums, are currently in a rather difficult situation," explained Professor Edoardo Beretta. "From 1999 to 2024, the index of health insurance premiums (IPAM) increased by an average of 113.9%, which has reduced the growth in disposable income."

On the other hand, energy costs are expected to fall by 3 to 13 per cent in much of the canton, while food prices will generally remain stable. "There will likely be minimal growth in the prices of consumer goods. We must remember that we are emerging from a period of significant price increases. Additionally, we are increasingly seeing complex phenomena, such as a decrease in the quality of goods while the prices remain the same," Professor Beretta commented.

So what can we expect from 2025? "I recommend moderate optimism and encourage pursuing the projects that are personally meaningful and that are the basis for economic growth. However, it is essential to stay cautious and maintain a good savings rate to be prepared for any unexpected events," concluded the USI professor.